How the Race was Lost - Liège-Bastogne-Liège

My last post was such a success, with over 200 pageviews, that I've decided to write this one without waiting for Cyclocosm's how the race was won analysis.

It's the last edition of this thing for awhile. Liège-Bastogne-Liège, also known as La Doyenne, which means "the oldest" is the last of the Ardennes and the spring classics. I won't be doing one of these until the end of the Giro, most likely, because there aren't really any really interesting races until then.

Just as a reminder, there can only be one winner, because everyone else is a loser.




La Doyenne is an interesting race. It's been described to me as a race where two guys went out for a nice, easy, 300km ride on a Sunday afternoon from Liège to Bastogne and then back to Liège. On the way out to Bastogne, the first guy was able to choose the route. The first guy is a large and powerful guy and so he chose really fast, flat roads to get there fast. On the way back, the second guy got to choose the route, and he's a skinny dude who isn't fast on the flats but is a good climber, so he chose the windiest road with tons of hills for no reason. And thus La Doyenne was born. The first half is boring, and the second half is ridiculous.

You're a loser if you're caught up in this crash:

You also lose if you're caught up in another crash less than 5 km after the first one, like Simon Gerrans, incidentally one of my favorite riders in the peloton. Very sad. This guy has had a broken shoulder, then a broken elbow, all this season.

You lose if you waste your time in a suicidal breakaway, like Michele Scarponi and Esteban Chavez, though they might have done it for strategic reasons. You lose if you're not Spanish. You lose if you're not Valverde. In fact, did anyone actually think someone other than Valverde was going to win? I didn't.

Actually, this was a pretty boring race until the final ascent up to Ans. I suggest that at most, you watch the last 10 km. Dani Moreno did a good attack, but Valverde was so strong that he bridged up to it, dragged everyone else up, and still destroyed everyone else in the sprint. That guy is possessed.

I think in this case, everyone who was watching the first 250 km loses. Another special shout out to my FSADS fantasy cycling team (http://pdcvds.com/teams.php?mw=1&y=2015&uid=1603), in which I'm ranked a pitiful 793 out of 853 teams. This is because two of my top 3 cyclists are out due to injury, and Froome is never going to be the same again. Man, I should have taken Porte, Kristoff, and Stybar with that budget, and still had enough left over to take a ton of other people as well. I am the loser, but not the worst loser, only the 792nd loser.

I lied, here's Cyclocosm's How the Race was Won Analysis: